Simulated Champions League last-16 draw: Man City handed Inter Milan as Chelsea, Spurs & Liverpool learn fate


The group stage of the Champions League concluded on Wednesday and Manchester City will all be looking forward to Monday’s last 16 draw.

A calculation of probabilities for each pairing in Monday’s draw shows that Pep Guardiola’s side, who finished first in their group, would most likely face Serie A giant Inter Milan.

The probability calculations, courtesy of MisterChip, comes as the 16 teams that have progressed from the group stage await their fate in the draw at 11am UK time on Monday.

The eight group winners – Napoli, Porto, Bayern, Tottenham, Chelsea, Real Madrid, Man City and Benfica – will be seeded, meaning they cannot play each other.

They will get one of the eight runners-up – Liverpool, Club Brugge, Inter Milan, Eintracht Frankfurt, AC Milan, RB Leipzig, Dortmund or Paris Saint-Germain.

City’s potential opponents are Club Brugge, Inter Milan, Eintracht Frankfurt, AC Milan, RB Leipzig and, of course, the Ligue 1 champions.

According to MisterChip calculations as relayed by Daily Mail, there is a marginally higher chance of Man City getting Inter but also a 18.03 per cent chance of Eintracht and 17.39 per cent against Leipzig, both of which would be viewed as favourable.

As per the calculation there is less prospect of Man City getting PSG, who would certainly be the team to avoid

PSG, who have never won a European Cup and are desperate to end their drought, are undoubtedly the most feared side.

They’ve assembled one of the most dangerous attacks in Europe, as Kylian Mbappe, Lionel Messi and Neymar have scored 44 goals between them this season. It’s only November.

PSG have not lost a game this season, winning 16 of their 20 fixtures in all competitions. They boast a five-point gap at the top of Ligue 1 and picked up 14 points in their Champions League group

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